Top scientist warns AI could surpass human intelligence by 2027
The computer scientist and CEO who popularized the term 'artificial general intelligence' (AGI) believes AI is verging on an exponential 'intelligence explosion.'
The PhD mathematician and futurist Ben Goertzel made the prediction while closing out a summit on AGI this month: 'It seems quite plausible we could get to human-level AGI within, let's say, the next three to eight years.'
'Once you get to human-level AGI,' Goertzel, sometimes called 'father of AGI,' added, 'within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI.'
While the futurist admitted that he 'could be wrong,' he went on to predict that the only impediment to a runaway, ultra-advanced AI — far more advanced than its human makers — would be if the bot's 'own conservatism' advised caution.
Mathematician and futurist Ben Goertzel made the prediction while closing out a summit on AGI las week: 'we could get to human-level AGI within, let's say, the next three to eight years'
Goertzel made his predictions in Panama City, Panama during his closing speech for the 2024 Beneficial AI Summit, which is partially sponsored by his firm SingularityNET
Goertzel made his predictions during his closing remarks last week at the '2024 Beneficial AI Summit and Unconference,' partially sponsored by his own firm SingularityNET where he is CEO.
'There are known unknowns and probably unknown unknowns,' Goertzel acknowledged during his talk at the event, held this year in Panama City, Panama.
'No one has created human-level artificial general intelligence [AGI] yet; nobody has a solid knowledge of when we're going to get there.'
Goertzel has been investigating what he calls artificial super intelligence (ASI) — which he defines as an AI so advanced that it matches all of the brain power and computing power of human civilization combined
But, unless the processing power, in Goertzel's words, required 'quantum computer with a million qubits or something,' an exponential escalation of AI struck him as inevitable.
'My own view is once you get to human-level AGI, within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI,' he said.
In recent years, Goertzel has been investigating a concept he calls 'artificial super intelligence' (ASI) — which he defines as an AI that's so advanced that it matches all of the brain power and computing power of human civilization.
Goertzel listed 'three lines of converging evidence' that, he said, support his thesis.
First, he cited the updated work of Google's long-time resident futurist and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, who has developed a predictive model suggesting AGI will be achievable in 2029.
Kurzweil's idea, which will be given fresh detail in his forthcoming book 'The Singularity is Nearer,' drew on data documenting the exponential nature of technological growth within other tech sectors to help inform his analysis.
Next, Goertzel cited all the well-known recent improvements made to so-called large language models (LLMs) within the past few years, which he pointed out have 'woken up so much of the world to the potential of AI.'
Goertzel is perhaps most well-known for his work on Sophia the Robot, the first robot ever to be granted legal citizenship. Goertzel (right) has toured Sophia (left) as part of SingularityNET's push for a new online space for the exchange of AI algorithms
READ MORE: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says A.I. could endanger humanity in 5 YEARS - as he likens devastation to nuking Nagasaki and Hiroshima
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (pictured) is pushing for international governments to come together to regulate AI before it gets out of control. Speaking at a summit last November, Schmidt compared the need for regulating AI to weapon regulations after the bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima during WWII.
AdvertisementLastly, the computer scientist, donning his signature leopard print hat, turned to his own infrastructure research designed to combine various types of AI infrastructure, which he calls 'OpenCog Hyperon.'
The new infrastructure would marry more matural AI, like LLMs and new forms of AI that might be focused on other areas of cognitive reasoning beyond language, be it math, or physics or philosophy, to help create a more well-rounded true AGI.
Goertzel's 'OpenCog Hyperon.' has gotten the backing and interest of others in the AI space, including Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Research (BAIR) which hosted an article he cowrote with Databricks CTO Matei Zaharia and others last month.
This is not the first potentially dire or unquestionably bold prediction on AI that Goertzel has made in recent years.
In May 2023, the futurist said AI has the potential to replace 80 percent of human jobs 'in the next few years.'
'Pretty much every job involving paperwork,' he said at the Web Summit in Rio de Janeiro that month, 'should be automatable.'
Goertzel added that he did not see this as a negative, asserting that it would allow people to 'find better things to do with their life than work for a living.'
That same month, he also told the site Futurism: 'I've done drugs with an AI, if by that we mean I have done drugs and then interacted with an AI.'
The 'psychedelic' practice, part of his work on 'algorithmic music composition' in the 1990s, is just one of many eccentric episodes in Goertzel's history.
The self-described panpsychist, who has said he believes even 'a coffee cup has its own level of consciousness,' has suggested that researchers pursue the creation of a 'benign superintelligence.'
Goertzel has also proposed an AI-based cryptocurrency rating agency capable of identifying scam tokens and coins.
But perhaps the futurist computer scientist is most well-known for his work on Sophia the Robot, the first robot ever to be granted legal citizenship.
Related articles
NASCAR star Kyle Larson is embracing his Indianapolis 500 debut, right down to milking a cow
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Kyle Larson has been adamant about soaking up the entire Indianapolis 500 experi2024-05-22TikToker reveals the 'dystopian hack' that snuck her résumé past AI bots and landed her three jobs
A singer-songwriter has taken to social media to share the 'dystopian' hack that she says snuck her2024-05-22PSG faces a difficult rebuilding task without Mbappé as the curtain falls on superstar era
PARIS (AP) — Kylian Mbappé will become the latest expensive superstar to leave Paris Saint-Germain w2024-05-22Tiger Woods to feature at PGA Championship along with 16 LIV golfers
Tiger Woods has officially been locked in to play at the PGA Championship, as six LIV Golf rebels we2024-05-22Garcia, Winker go deep as Nats end slide, beat struggling Twins 12
WASHINGTON (AP) — Luis García Jr. homered and drove in three runs, Eddie Rosario also had three RBIs2024-05-22The Met Gala's flowery theme went in all directions
NEW YORK (AP) — Who won the Met Gala? Nature and its many blooms, along with some far-flung princess2024-05-22
atest comment